The wall of results
Retsil called these wells before it was allowed to see them
Every location below is a real well that has already been drilled. The engine was blinded to it — everything within 500 m was removed — then asked the same question you would ask: drill here or not? The last column is what the well actually did.
Calls shown here
22
Blind re-scores of real wells
Called correctly
17 of 22
Producer called above 60%, dry hole below
Full back-test
19,579
wells tested · AUC 0.776
| Location | Retsil call | Score | Offsets read | Producers / dry within 5 km | What the well did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.8147, -79.9413BU | DRILL | 99.4% | 2,731 | 494 / 0 | producer ✓ |
| 40.8185, -79.9355BU | DRILL | 99.4% | 2,722 | 464 / 0 | producer ✓ |
| 32.5436, -94.8643GRG | DRILL | 99.3% | 2,598 | 1925 / 14 | producer ✓ |
| 32.5277, -94.8730GRG | DRILL | 99.3% | 2,595 | 1443 / 4 | producer ✓ |
| 31.6723, -102.0596MID | DRILL | 99.2% | 626 | 474 / 1 | producer ✓ |
| 31.6715, -102.0646MID | DRILL | 99.2% | 636 | 463 / 1 | producer ✓ |
| 31.4855, -101.6504RGN | DRILL | 99.0% | 4,073 | 427 / 2 | producer ✓ |
| 31.4930, -101.6630RGN | DRILL | 98.9% | 4,065 | 449 / 1 | producer ✓ |
| 41.2218, -79.5276CL | DRILL | 98.6% | 1,104 | 286 / 4 | producer ✓ |
| 41.2280, -79.5225CL | DRILL | 98.5% | 1,102 | 256 / 4 | producer ✓ |
| 41.1815, -79.6990VE | DRILL | 97.7% | 2,381 | 455 / 13 | producer ✓ |
| 41.1876, -79.7166VE | DRILL | 97.6% | 1,952 | 357 / 8 | producer ✓ |
| 32.0656, -102.1780MID | DRILL | 91.5% | 674 | 239 / 15 | dry hole ✗ |
| 31.9913, -101.9977MID | DRILL | 91.4% | 883 | 145 / 9 | dry hole ✗ |
| 32.4216, -94.7438GRG | CONDITIONAL | 77.8% | 6,351 | 44 / 3 | dry hole ✗ |
| 32.4621, -94.9887GRG | CONDITIONAL | 73.0% | 813 | 23 / 13 | dry hole ✗ |
| 41.2492, -79.6745VE | CONDITIONAL | 72.3% | 1,577 | 126 / 20 | dry hole ✗ |
| 41.2012, -79.9776VE | EVALUATE | 59.1% | 840 | 22 / 12 | dry hole ✓ |
| 31.1106, -101.7185RGN | PASS | 32.3% | 1,149 | 35 / 11 | dry hole ✓ |
| 31.1055, -101.6082RGN | PASS | 29.3% | 1,494 | 28 / 26 | dry hole ✓ |
| 41.0886, -79.8802BU | PASS | 27.2% | 2,099 | 30 / 28 | dry hole ✓ |
| 41.0187, -79.9420BU | PASS | 24.7% | 735 | 31 / 24 | dry hole ✓ |
How to read this honestly
- These are hand-picked illustrations from the wider back-test, chosen to show both confident hits and the misses. The unfiltered numbers over 19,579 wells are on the measured accuracy page, including the score bands where the engine is close to a coin flip.
- Public well inventories under-report dry holes, so the real-world dry rate is higher than the record shows. Scores are shrunk toward a conservative prior for that reason.
- A score measures whether ground like this has paid before. It does not measure trap geometry, seal integrity, or reservoir quality on your specific tract — only seismic, logs, and cores do that.
Retsil outputs are preliminary screenings, not certified geology and not a guarantee of production. Have a licensed petroleum geologist or drilling engineer review the findings before drilling or committing capital.